AUSTIN — Gov. Greg Abbott ratcheted up his rhetoric on sanctuary cities and immigration this week when he warned sheriffs that they will lose state money if they refuse requests to detain people suspected of being in the United States illegally.

It’s a safe position for Abbott, say political observers, even in a state where nearly 40 percent of the population is Latino and about 1 in 6 people were born abroad.

In Texas, Republicans can still afford to hammer on immigration issues.

In fact, a Pew Research Center study last year found that 54 percent of registered Latino voters say immigration isn’t a deal-breaker for them if they agree with candidates on most other issues.

“Texas is still lopsided. Latino voter turnout is abysmal,” said Sylvia Manzano, a principal at the opinion research firm Latino Decisions, who noted Democrats are simply too weak to capitalize on Latino discontent.

“Texas is not competitive, so the Republicans risk nothing. They’re not in danger of losing,” she said.

That will continue to be the case – and Republicans will continue to run the table in Texas – until Democrats make a dramatic financial investment and strengthen the state organization, she said.

“Punitive policies” and “spiteful rhetoric,” she added, are only reason to avoid one particular candidate or party. They’re not enough to drive people to mobilize behind another party.

“Latinos in Texas don’t like many policies the Texas GOP has advanced, including public school budget cuts and rejecting Medicaid expansion,” she said. “This is more of the same.”

Mark Jones, a Rice University political scientist, said immigration issues and questions over sanctuary cities put Texas Republicans in a difficult spot.

They must appeal to core voters who participate in primary elections, while also keeping an eye on medium- and long-term goals.

Republicans can’t afford to alienate Latinos as a group and send them to the Democrats, he said.

“At the same time, those leaders realize voters are very worried about illegal immigration,” he said.

That’s where Abbott’s rhetoric about sanctuary cities comes into play.

“All he’s doing is asking sheriffs to comply with federal law,” said Jones. “Abbott seems to be signaling to the base that he’s doing something concrete.”

Democrats, in the meantime, have “a far more serious Anglo problem,” said Jones.

The last two Democratic challengers for governor only won 28 percent of the non-Hispanic vote.

Jones said Abbott may be more concerned about possible challengers in a Republican primary in March 2018, including Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.

“As long as he keeps doing what he’s doing, Dan Patrick won’t challenge,” Jones said.

Texas Republicans aren’t the only ones concerned about immigration. The party’s presidential candidates have focused on the issue, including billionaire Donald Trump, who has called Mexican immigrants “criminals” and “rapists” and proposed building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

The candidates have also expressed enmity for communities that openly refuse to assist federal immigration officials. One policy group counts 340 such “sanctuaries” in the United States.

Jeronimo Cortina, political scientist at the University of Houston, said it’s only a matter of time before such issues become much more thorny.

He called the state’s Latino population a sleeping giant.

“Someday that giant is going to wake up,” he said. “Texas is a solid Republican state, but you have to look into the future. Someday it’s going to be a purple state, simply by demographics.”

John Austin covers the Texas Statehouse for CNHI’s newspapers and websites. Reach him at jaustin@cnhi.com.