Studied conjecture over how an Obamacare replacement plan could affect local residents suggests the plan may present Cullman County insurance customers with a new incentive to earn more money.

A county-by-county assessment of how the American Health Care Act — the plan supported by President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers — might alter current Obamacare insurance subsidies projects that higher earners in Cullman County would receive more government assistance with their insurance bill, while lower earners would receive less.

The assessment was released earlier this month by the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonprofit that conducts research on U.S. health care policy and economics.

The most dramatic contrast between the Obamacare subsidy structure and that of the new proposal comes in the study’s 60-year-old demographic.

A local 60-year-old who earns $20,000 per year would be eligible for a $12,500 health coverage subsidy by 2020 under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), but would only receive $4,000 under the GOP plan, according to the Kaiser study.

Local 60-year-olds who earn $50,000 per year would also receive a higher subsidy under Obamacare — $8,360 — compared with $4,000 under the new proposal.

Bump a 60 year-old’s annual earnings to $100,000, and those numbers shift to favor the new plan. Under Obamacare, no subsidy would apply to a Cullman County resident in that age and income bracket. But, under the GOP proposal, such a customer would receive a $1,500 credit, the Kaiser report states.

Age plays a role, both under Obamacare and the new proposal — but it’s a far greater determinant under the new plan. The two plans use differing measuring points to arrive at their respective subsidy targets. Obamacare weighs family income, the local cost of health insurance, and age; the new proposal considers only a person’s age.

A 40 year-old with an annual income of $20,000 per year, for example, could expect an Obamacare tax credit of $5,380 in 2020. But that credit would drop to $3,000 under the GOP plan, according to Kaiser.

A 40 year-old Cullman resident earning $100,000 per year, would receive an even bigger tax credit — $3,000 — under the new plan; whereas he would receive nothing under Obamacare.

Middle-income earners in Cullman County would benefit from the new plan as well. A local 40-year-old earning $50,000 per year would receive an Obamacare subsidy of $1,240 by 2020. Under the new plan, that subsidy is projected to rise to $3,000.

According to the Kaiser assessment, a 27-year-old Cullman customer who earns $20,000 per year would receive a $4,240 tax credit, under Obamacare, toward insurance premiums in 2020, while under the GOP plan that subsidy would drop to $2,000.

Yet, if that same 27-year-old were earning $100,000 per year in Cullman County, he would receive nothing under Obamacare. But he’d still be eligible for a $2,000 subsidy under the new plan.

“Generally, people who are older, lower-income, or live in high-premium areas (like Alaska and Arizona) receive larger tax credits under the ACA than they would under the American Health Care Act replacement,” Kaiser observed.

“Conversely, some people who are younger, higher-income, or live in low-premium areas (like Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Washington) may receive larger assistance under the replacement plan.”

Benjamin Bullard can be reached by phone at 256-734-2131 ext. 145.