ANDERSON, Ind. — If you’re pleasantly surprised by unexpectedly low prices at the pump as you fuel up for your holiday travels this year, a leading energy economist thinks you should get used to it.

Bernard Weinstein, the associate director of Southern Methodist University’s Maguire Energy Institute, says he doesn’t expect prices to rise much above $2.50 a gallon in most of the country in the near future.

“I’d be very surprised if it goes over $2.50 a gallon over the next four years,” Weinstein told the Anderson (Indiana) Herald Bulletin.

His reasoning is based on supply and demand. With oil being extracted from oil shale with increasing efficiency, oil production in the United States has nearly doubled since 2010, to more than 12 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. A lack of oil imports has also kept prices low overall.

“The reason you are seeing so much more production is because of the shale revolution,” Weinstein said. But, he added, while demand has remained relatively stagnant — which may help consumers using less disposable income — a growing surplus of oil may actually begin to hurt the industry.

“We are a victim of our own success,” Weinstein said. “Demand hasn’t grown in tandem, so we have a surplus.”

Weinstein said the effects of a surplus will gradually become apparent in states with more prolific refining capacity, like Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, California and others.

“The industries in those states are all hurting to various degrees,” he said.

In the meantime, though, drivers will enjoy the lowest prices for gasoline during the holiday season since 2008, according to AAA. Last week, the motor club reported the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline was $2.20, which was down 77 cents from a year ago.

“Typically, at this time of the year gas prices do tend to fall off,” said Greg Seiter, public affairs manager for the AAA Hoosier Motor Club. “They would be falling back anyway if for no other reason than the days are getting shorter and people are driving less.”

Seiter added that the list of contributing factors to gas prices is “seemingly endless,” but a consistent, stable supply should ensure that prices remain relatively close to where they are now.

“If we don’t have a major supply disruption, if crude oil prices remain close to where they are, there’s no reason prices should jump any time soon,” he said.

The Anderson (Indiana) Herald Bulletin contributed to this story.