TALKIN’ PREP FOOTBALL PREVIEW: Win or lose, Bearcats still have outs
Published 6:23 pm Thursday, October 23, 2014
- Brontae Harris checks the spot during Cullman's game at Hartselle. The Bearcats and Tigers enter this week tied for the region's final playoff berth.
For anyone thinking this is a win-or-go-home kind of week for Cullman, you’re sorely mistaken.
It’s never that simple in Class 6A, Region 8.
Even if the Bearcats (4-4, 2-3) can’t escape Muscle Shoals (5-2, 3-2) with a victory Friday night, there’s still ample opportunity for them to reach the playoffs for a 10th straight fall. And even if they do, the postseason still isn’t guaranteed.
Go figure.
The best-case scenario for Cullman would include a triumph over the Trojans and a Hartselle (5-3, 2-3) loss to Austin (2-6, 1-4). The worst would see a Week 10 defeat for the Black and Gold coupled with a Hartselle win.
The former, the ’Cats are in. The latter, they’re out.
Any other changes to the script would bring the Alabama High School Athletic Association’s zany tiebreakers into the equation, which favor the team “whose non-region opponents … any class above and no more than two classes below have the most victories.” Cullman currently has the edge in those situations, but that could change with two weeks remaining on the schedule.
The moral of the story: Bearcat fans will have to dig deep down this week and find a way to root against their BFFs at Hartselle. Something tells me that shouldn’t be too difficult …
Beating Muscle Shoals on the road, though? That’ll be anything but simple. The Trojans are a streaking squad that’ve had two weeks to prepare for Cullman’s spread attack since squeaking by Decatur 10-7.
The Black and Gold lead the all-time series 7-5 but have lost the last three meetings by an average of 28 points.
% Rob’s Pick: Muscle Shoals
% Jake’s Pick: Muscle Shoals
% Tarrant (4-4, 4-1 in 2A, Region 6) at Cold Springs (6-2, 3-2): This game is either going to crystalize the region’s playoff picture or crack it into a million — or at least three — pieces that can’t be picked up until the regular season comes to a complete close.
The Eagles would love nothing more than to keep their perfect home record (4-0) intact and create a three-way logjam for the region’s second seed. The alternative is Tarrant taking hosting rights for itself and Cold Springs staying in the fourth spot, which calls for a first-round trek to top-ranked Fyffe.
The Blue and Gold are riding high after shutting out Sumiton Christian 26-0, but the Wildcats aren’t likely to account for a second straight goose egg. Their lowest offensive output of the season came in last week’s 26-13 win at Addison. They put up 77 points on Falkville and 60-plus apiece on Sumiton Christian and Southeastern.
% Rob’s Pick: Tarrant
% Jake’s Pick: Tarrant
% Vinemont (4-4, 3-2 in 3A, Region 5) at Winston County (5-3, 3-2): The last local contest with playoff complications has the Eagles and Yellow Jackets mired in a pick-your-own poison pickle.
The winner will draw the No. 3 seed and have to travel to No. 9 Lauderdale County for the first round, a fate only slightly more preferrable than the trip to No. 1 Madison Academy reserved for the loser.
Still, momentum is never a bad thing, and Vinemont will look to keep it with a third consecutive victory.
With Winston County averaging almost 35 points a game and Vinemont — despite an injury-ravaged stretch — averaging a bit more than 27, the final score could come down to which squad has the ball last.
Under those circumstances, I like Alan Scott and the Eagles.
% Rob’s Pick: Vinemont
% Jake’s Pick: Winston County
% Addison (5-3, 3-2 in 2A, Region 6) at Southeastern (2-6, 0-5): The Bulldogs lost out on their first shot at hosting rights last week but could still snag the region’s second seed with a win over the Mustangs, a little help from Cold Springs and a Week 11 victory versus Winston County.
But let’s not look so far ahead. All that matters right now is Southeastern, which Addison hasn’t yielded a single point to in two meetings. The Dawgs downed the Mustangs 48-0 and 47-0, respectively, as 1A region mates in 2012 and 2013.
Injuries have piled up left and right on David Smothers’s squad, so maybe don’t expect a third straight shutout. But a win? Yeah, that’ll happen.
% Rob’s Pick: Addison
% Jake’s Pick: Addison
% Butler (0-8, 0-6 in 5A, Region 7) at Fairview (2-6, 0-6): Someone is going to get its first region victory of the fall.
It should be the Aggies, but I’ll stop short of a guarantee for a team that’s destined for its worst season since a 1-9 showing in 2006, the year before current coach George Redding took the reins.
Fairview has easily handled the Rebels — 62-28 in 2010 and 47-14 in 2011 — in both tries.
The best confidence booster for the Aggies would be a two-game win streak to close the campaign. They’ll get halfway there Friday night.
% Rob’s Pick: Fairview
% Jake’s Pick: Fairview
% Good Hope (4-4, 3-3 in 4A, Region 7) at North Jackson (6-2, 5-1): School scoring records are never safe around these two squads.
The Raiders reset theirs at 63 in last week’s homecoming win over DAR, while the Chiefs tied theirs twice earlier this month with back-to-back 69-point outbursts.
Good Hope certainly isn’t the favorite against a traditionally powerful program that’s won six straight, the last a 52-27 drumming of then-No. 5 Oneonta. However, the Red and White offense should still be able to run free and have the opportunity to show some folks their youth-infused roster is capable of contending in the near future.
The reason for feeling Good Hope’s O can do some work this week? North Jackson is scoring 51 points a game but giving up just less than 33.
% Rob’s Pick: North Jackson
% Jake’s Pick: North Jackson
% Hanceville (1-7, 1-4 in 3A, Region 5) at Susan Moore (2-6, 1-4): For the first time since 2013, the Bulldogs are riding a wave of momentum. There’s a chance it might not wash up until 2015, either.
Following an 0-7 start, Hanceville began what it hopes will be a three-game win streak to end the season with a 27-7 homecoming victory over Holly Pond. Coincidentally, that’s the same score the Broncos were beaten by Susan Moore, this week’s foe for Danny Miller’s Dawgs.
Sticking with scores as an indicator, Hanceville has fared better than Susan Moore across the board in region play. That trend should show through with a Purple and Gold triumph on the road.
% Rob’s Pick: Hanceville
% Jake’s Pick: Hanceville
% Winfield (5-3, 4-1 in 3A, Region 5) at Holly Pond (0-8, 0-5): Ask who won the last meeting between these two teams, and the answer might surprise you.
The year was 2011, and it was the Broncos who got by the Pirates in a 28-27 thriller. That victory and another the next week against Vinemont vaulted the Green and White into the playoffs, but it’s been tough goings ever since.
The road won’t get any smoother this week. Winfield is back to being the Winfield of yore with losses only to Fayette County, Hamilton and Oakman.
% Rob’s Pick: Winfield
% Jake’s Pick: Winfield
% Lawrence County (5-3, 3-3 in 5A, Region 8) at West Point (5-3, 3-3): Check out www.cullmantimes.com or Thursday’s Times for a preview of this battle for the region’s final playoff spot.
% Rob’s Pick: West Point
% Jake’s Pick: West Point
% Rob’s Picks to Date: 45-14
% Jake’s Picks to Date: 44-15