As Fultondale and other stricken areas remembered the major tornado outbreak that hot three years ago Sunday, north and central Alabama is facing another storm system over several days that could bring what the National Weather Service calls “strong” tornadoes.

Several schools systems in Alabama have already announced they will close schools early on Monday, so that students can get back home before the second of three rounds of severe weather hits. Jefferson and Blount county schools have not yet made such an announcement, but Sumiton Christian School has announced it will dismiss classes at noon, as have Walker County, Cullman City and Cullman County systems. Fairfield City Schools will not dismiss early, but have cancelled after-school activities.

This storm system has been anticipated for several days; local forecasters started to warn about it as early as last Wednesday. It’s a slow-moving system that began in the southern Plains states, and which has already spawned tornadoes in Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas on Sunday afternoon. One twister in Mayflower, Ark. has resulted in widespread major damage, and at least eight deaths are reported in Arkansas alone.

Here in Alabama, the system is expected to bring severe weather in three separate rounds, with the first expected to reach the metro Birmingham area around 3 or 4 a.m. Monday. This round will be the least dangerous of the three, with the main threat being heavy rain, high winds and lightning, with possible isolated tornadoes. The risk of all of these hazards is categorized as low by the NWS office in Calera, which serves metro Birmingham.

But the weather will take a turn for the worse Monday evening, as the second round of storms begins. The NWS says this round will bring widespread severe weather, with a high probability of all forms of hazards, including strong tornadoes. This round will start around 6 p.m. in the metro area, and go through the overnight hours.

A third round will follow on Tuesday afternoon, and may be even more severe than the second. There’s again a high likelihood of strong tornadoes, hail, heavy flooding rain and damaging winds. The severity of this round depends in part on how quickly the second round clears out, which determines how much sunshine will appear between rounds. More sunshine would heat the atmosphere and destabilize it, which results in more severe weather.

The Storm Prediction Center has assigned a moderate risk of severe weather for Monday in north and west Alabama, as far southeast as metro Birmingham. Earlier on Sunday, the center had issued a rare high righ of severe weather in Arkansas and parts of Louisiana. A slight risi is issued for Tuesday, but that may be increased later.

Residents should stay weather aware throughout the next three days, especially during afternoon and evening hours. The North Jefferson News will provide frequent updates here at njefersonnews.com, as well as our Facebook page and Twitter feed. However, if you are one of the more than 8,000 people who have “liked” our Facebook page, you may need to take an additional step to ensure that you’re notified of all of our posts as they occur, as Facebook does not automatically notify users of posts from business-related pages. Go to the NJN page, hover your mouse pointer over the “Liked” button, and wait for a menu to pop up. Click on “Get notifications” and you’re set. (This works differently on many mobile devices.)